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Currently does not include estimates of number of people who may need PrEP (e.g. number of IDUs at high risk of HIV acquisition) or TasP
• Borrows average usage forecast from currently available forecasts till 2018
• Borrows epidemiological estimates from available estimates till 2018
• Assumptions:
– Linear regression on market share increase
– Healthy and timely generic competition
– Introduction of new drugs based on projected development timelines of generic manufacturers and estimated inclusion in WHO Guidelines
– Price considerations: lower priced medicines would potentially have higher usage
– Country inclusion: accounts for all low and middle income countries including those with well established ARV treatment programs such as Brazil
– Accounts mainly for the public market

Considered three possibilities:
Scenario 1: Status Quo
• WHO Guidelines remain consistent with current guidelines
• New products when introduced show only a marginal uptake
• Use of Integrase Inhibitors (INIs) limited to 3rd line
Scenario 2: Likely Use
• WHO Guidelines accept and recommend new products using the treatment optimisation framework
• New products have a good uptake; assumed that new FDCs such as those containing DTG,  TAF and heat stable DRV/r are made available as generics
• Use of INIs is recommended as preferred options in 2nd and 3rd line in initial years, and later progressing to 1st line use (when more safety data is available)
Scenario 3: Aggressive Adoption
• WHO Guidelines recommend aggressive use of new products
• Use of INIs as preferred option recommended in 1st line